|
by Sibylla Brodzinsky in Carácas
It is music to the ears of Ms Aquiles, a tough 52-year-old grandmother and community organiser in her neighbourhood, El Guanábano. She and her family are fervent supporters of the firebrand left-leaning president and his self-styled revolution. "Chávez is the only president ever to work for us, the poor people," she says in the living room of her home, where a framed picture of the president is on prominent display. But while Ms Aquiles sees the president as a saviour, others regard him as a budding dictator whom they want ousted. In its last chance to remove the president constitutionally, the opposition this week hopes to be able to validate more than a million signatures on a petition to trigger a recall vote against Mr Chávez. It may also be the last chance to avoid a civil war, experts say. In a country so deeply polarised over the president, the potential for violence is high. Dozens of people have died in clashes between pro- and anti-Chávez groups during the past several years. The latest deaths came in February, when at least 14 people died in opposition demonstrations and as many as 200 were wounded. Several of those detained were ill-treated or tortured by members of the security forces, according to Amnesty International. Mr Chávez, a paratroop commander responsible for one failed coup attempt, was elected in 1998 by a large majority of Venezuelans frustrated with the country's corrupt politics. But his support began to dwindle when his discourse became more left-leaning and he began attacking what he calls the "rancid oligarchy". Many fear that his friendship with Fidel Castro could herald a Cuban-style socialist system for Venezuela, and worry about his apparent sympathy with neighbouring Colombia's leftwing rebels.
General strike The opposition used street demonstrations to try to force his resignation and last year staged a two-month general strike that paralysed the economy, but only led him to tighten his grip on power. Spray-painted on the walls of Carácas's eastern neighbourhoods where the middle and upper classes live, is the cryptic message "RR or 350". Residents explain: either they get a recall referendum or they will apply article 350 of the constitution, which says that Venezuelans can rise up against any regime that violates democracy or human rights. "If there is no referendum, there could be civil war, with thousands of deaths," says Dino Magnificó, a 70-ish Italian immigrant, sitting at a placid cafe in the Bello Campo neighbourhood. His opinion echoes a warning from the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based thinktank, in a recent report on Venezuela. Analysts, and even some opposition members, say the cards are so stacked against them that the likelihood of a referendum is low. "It's like getting in the ring with a boxer who has bought the referee, paid off the spectators and is going to bite your ear off," says Michael Rowan, an American political strategist who has lived in Venezuela for more than 30 years. The opposition accuses Mr Chávez of manipulating the process for a recall vote, enshrined in the 2000 constitution for any elected figure who is halfway through his term. They complain that the election board controlled by his supporters has changed the rules repeatedly. The board questioned the validity of more than 1 million of the signatures collected in the petition drive last year, leading to the verification process this weekend. The opposition needs 2.4 million valid signatures to trigger a referendum. The arrest in Venezuela this month of more than 100 suspected Colombian paramilitaries who the government says were recruited to assassinate him, is seen by the opposition as an attempt to divert attention from the referendum issue and to round up dissidents. Police have arrested at least seven military officers and several civilians since the alleged plot was foiled. It would not be the first time the Chávez regime has been threatened. Mr Chávez was ousted briefly in April 2002 by a military rebellion, but returned to power two days later.
Broad coalition Timoteo Zambrano, a leader of a broad coalition of opposition political parties, business organisations, labour unions and civic groups known as the Democratic Coordinator, says if the election board fails to recognise the signatures as valid, or if the government somehow manages to manipulate the outcome of the signature verification drive, the organisation will concentrate on elections in 2006, when Mr Chávez's term ends. But he warns there is no telling what individuals will do. "Once you close off democratic and constitutional avenues, people look for other ways to achieve their goals." He calls Mr Chávez's government a "constitutional dictatorship". For all his vitriolic rhetoric against the US and George Bush, Washington has so far failed to engage Mr Chávez directly in the fight. However, the US Congress has funded some opposition groups through a non-governmental organisation. As long as the oil keeps flowing from the world's fifth largest petroleum exporter to the US, and American companies get lucrative production contracts from the state-owned oil com pany, Washington does not appear overly willing to confront Mr Chávez. Mr Chávez was wildly popular when he was first elected in 1998 on promises to tear down Venezuela's corrupt political system. He managed to push through a new constitution which expanded presidential power, but his approval ratings dipped to 30% last year. That was when his government decided to start making good on its promises to help the poor. A series of Cuban-style literacy drives and free neighbourhood health clinics run by Cuban doctors were launched in the poorest barrios. People are grateful and approval ratings have jumped back to a more comfortable 40%. The programmes have swayed some of Mr Chávez's former opponents. Irma Doudier's hair is thinning, she is missing most of her bottom teeth and her skin is dry and cracked. But she is a vibrant community leader in the Barrios Unidos shanty town. A lifelong member of Copei, one of the two traditional political parties that are part of the opposition, Ms Doudier, 60, signed the petition against Mr Chávez last year. But she says she will withdraw it next weekend. "Community work has no ideology. The government has given things for the community. It is helping my people with its missions," she says. "Whoever gives us what we need, that is who I'm for." But Luis Contréras, an upmarket butcher, differs. "I signed of course," he says. "But apparently there was some problem with my signature, so I will go and verify it. I'm proud to have signed. We've got to get that crazy man out." |